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Let's take a homemade, but very realistic scenario. Jimmy has 6 million left, and Andy and I have 3 million each. Prize money is as follows: first place gets 1.5 million, second place gets one million, and third place gets 700, 000, so the total pool is 3.2 million.
Excerpt from: Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hansen Let's say, for simplicity's sake assumed equal play standards and skill levels, so that no one has an edge over the others. Without going into some long complicated calculation, I think it is fair to say that Jimmy wins 50% of the time, takes second 30% of the time and finishes third, 20%. Andy and I split the rest with 25% wins each.
I lost 65000 and jimmy didn't make a penny. Where did the money go? Well, obviously, the third party took care of the leftovers. Without lifting a finger and he made 65, 000, not bad for mocking hand! What about the other scenario with me and Andy planning and all in pot and jimmy on the sideline? Is the bystander again, the sole beneficiary? A spare you the details and just give you the result. Judy will gain 60,000 on the exchange, and I won't bother to tell you losers are. As you can see the waiting game has a lot of merit! Whoever sits out, watching a big shootout amongst the other two combatants, will inevitably gain!
Given the circumstances, it sounds like Patience is the primary virtue in our little three handed charade, but unfortunately the example has a couple of flaws. The above examples are based on a completely dried pot to start with, and as we all know that is not the case. There are substantial blinds and antes added every hand to change the equation somewhat in favor of aggression.
There is another hurdle. The expected value gained from sitting still stems solely from opponents getting knocked out, and you taking a step up the ladder. There is no way to guarantee a big, all in pot just because you sit out of hand. If your opponents only play a small part you have lost your blind and empty and again that nothing.
Adding it all up, will one argument for waiting and two for playing. His one compelling enough to overturn the jury? I don't think so! Even though I'm aware of specific situations where doing nothing is absolutely the best play, this is just not one of them. The relatively big blinds, combined with the high empty structure create an aggressive environment, and no latter principle is going to change that. You should of course be aware of the implications all in pots can have on your overall expected value, but you can't afford to go into a shell. My advice: be aggressive, but careful. |
